Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, December 2nd

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, possibly influenced by strong stock gains. The Dow is currently up 464 points while the Nasdaq is up 137 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (1.43%), but a strong rally late yesterday should still allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be slightly lower than Wednesday’s early pricing. If you saw a large improvement yesterday before closing, you may see a slight increase this morning.

11/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.43%

464


Dow


34,486

137


NASDAQ


15,391

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


Fed Beige Book

Yesterday’s afternoon release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book didn’t show any surprises. In summary, it indicated modest to moderate economic growth throughout the Fed regions. There were reports of supply chain issues that likely restricted growth in many areas. Again, no surprise there. Bonds appear to have rallied around the time the book was released, but it is hard to justify that move being a result of the release itself.

Medium


Negative


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Today’s only relevant economic data was last week’s unemployment figures that showed 222,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was up from the previous week’s revised 194,000 and lower than the 250,000 that was expected. Rising claims is a sign of weakness in the employment sector, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

High


Unknown


Employment Situation

Tomorrow has two economic reports set for release, one of which is highly influential to the financial and mortgage markets. The key release is November’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET that contains many employment statistics and readings. Most watched are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts show the unemployment rate to have slipped 0.1% to 4.5% while 535,000 new jobs were added back to the economy. The income reading is forecasted to show an increase of 0.4%. The ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate, a much smaller increase in payrolls (or a decline) and no change in the earnings reading. That would likely cause bond prices to rise, pushing yields and mortgage rates noticeably lower tomorrow. However, stronger than expected readings may fuel bond selling that would lead to higher mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Factory Orders

October's Factory Orders report will close out this week's calendar at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Commerce Department report is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week, except this one includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn't have a significant influence on bond trading since a good portion of the data has previously been made public. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.4% rise in new orders. Favorable news would be a weaker reading because it would signal softer than expected manufacturing sector activity. However, the Employment report will draw all the attention, limiting the importance of this one even more than usual.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.